Stats preview for the Test series between England and New Zealand

S Rajesh20-May-2015In home Test series against New Zealand, England’s dominance has been emphatic – out of 16 series, they’ve won 13, lost just two, and drawn one. They’ve won seven of their last eight home Tests against New Zealand. Despite that one-sided history, New Zealand will go into the two-Test series as slight favourites, on paper at least: they’re currently ranked No. 3 in the ICC Test rankings, two places above England, and have also had a much better recent run.Since November 2013, England have a 4-8 record in Tests – the defeats include a 5-0 whitewash in Australia, a home series loss against Sri Lanka, and a drawn series in the West Indies. In the same period, New Zealand have an 8-2 record – their win-loss ratio is the best among all teams in these 18 months: they’ve beaten West Indies home and away, won home series against India and Sri Lanka, and drawn in the UAE against Pakistan.Those recent numbers look overwhelmingly in favour of New Zealand, but a closer look reveals that most of England’s defeats have come overseas – they are 3-2 at home during this period – while New Zealand have mostly won at home – they are 3-2 in away Tests. Given that England have the advantage of home conditions – and New Zealand haven’t had the ideal preparation for a Test series – there may not be that much to choose between the two teams.

New Zealand’s batting resurgenceThe batting and bowling averages for the two teams indicate that New Zealand’s batsmen have made the biggest difference to the team during this period. They’ve averaged more than 40 runs per wicket, and put up enough runs on the board for the bowlers to then take over. In 13 Tests, New Zealand’s batsmen have scored 20 centuries, compared to 14 hundreds in 15 Tests by England’s batsmen. Three of New Zealand’s batsmen – Brendon McCullum, Ross Taylor and Kane Williamson – have contributed 14 of those 20 centuries, and they’ve all averaged more than 58 in these 18 months. Their form will be key for New Zealand again, even though others like BJ Watling and Tom Latham have also made crucial contributions.England’s batting stars have been Joe Root and Gary Ballance – between them, they’ve made eight of the team’s 14 hundreds, and average more than 60. However, the lack of big runs for Alastair Cook and Ian Bell has hurt the team badly: both have averaged less than 36. Cook, though, showed some return to form in the West Indies with a century and two fifties in six innings, which only augurs well for the summer ahead.

The new-ball contestThe bowling numbers for the two teams are much closer over the last 18 months and, in familiar home conditions, England could well have an edge there. James Anderson has averaged less than 25 during this period, and his average in home Tests since 2010 is 23.60: he has 146 wickets in 31 games during this period. Stuart Broad’s recent form is impressive too, but New Zealand have their own trump cards in Trent Boult and Tim Southee, who both average less than 25 in the last 18 months. The battle between these two pairs of new-ball bowlers could well be the key contest in the series

The head-to-head battlesAnderson and Broad also have pretty good records against New Zealand’s top three batsmen. Broad, especially, has had plenty of success against Taylor and McCullum, who’ve both handled Anderson a lot better.On the other hand, England’s three top batsmen have had mixed success against Boult and Southee. Cook has struggled against Boult, but has faced 264 balls from Southee without being dismissed. Bell has faced 154 deliveries from Boult without being dismissed, but has fallen twice to Southee, while Root has a pretty ordinary record against both.

The Lord’s factorEngland have lost two of their last five Lord’s Tests – against South Africa and India – but before that they had a run of 13 Tests there without a defeat, winning six and drawing seven. Against New Zealand, they’ve only lost one out of 16 Lord’s Tests, winning seven and drawing eight. Most of the current England players have superb records here: Root averages 84, with two hundreds in four Tests, while Balance has scored a century in each of his two Tests there and averages 88. Bell has been around a lot longer – he played his first Lord’s Test ten years ago – but he has an excellent record too, averaging 53 over 16 matches. Cook is the one player with a slightly below-par record: he averages of 39.93 from 18 Tests, thanks to an average of 16 from his last ten innings. Among the bowlers, both Anderson and Broad have tremendous records at Lord’s, with Anderson averaging 25.30 (73 wickets in 16 Tests), and Broad 29.50 (55 wickets in 13 Tests).New Zealand may be ahead on recent form but, given that England are playing at home and some of New Zealand’s key players are coming in directly from the IPL, England should fancy their chances over the next couple of weeks.